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Welcome to Our June 2009 Issue

Dear Reader,

FOR ANYONE longing for peace and security on the Korean Peninsula, these have been trying months. The recent escalation of tensions, culminating spectacularly in North Korea’s surprise second nuclear test on May 25, have once again refocused the world’s attention on one of Asia’s most dangerous and most difficult-to-fathom trouble spots.

To make matters worse, North Korea’s bellicose provocations — which triggered a fresh set of UN Security Council sanctions in June — come at a time when the health of Dear Leader Kim Jong-il has fueled uncertainty about who might succeed him and what this could mean for the country and the world. Reports that Kim has tapped his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, to be the North’s future leader have hardly ended the uncertainty.

In this issue of Global Asia, we take a close look at the many dimensions that make up the complex puzzle that is North Korea. We ask whether the country will ever be convinced to give up its nuclear ambitions, and if so, what it might take to make this happen. We delve into the somewhat theocratic elements of the “Kim Dynasty” in order to shed light on what a Kim Jong-un succession would mean for the future. We examine the country’s flirtation with economic reform and opening, then its backtracking, and ponder whether the North Korean economy can forever resist the market forces those reforms unleashed. We also dissect the many social changes that are inexorably altering the political dynamics of governance. And in a sign that governance also matters to the health of the planet, we chronicle the disastrous environmental legacy of the Kim regime and what should be done about it. Finally, we explore the many alternative futures one can envision for North Korea, depending on how the country and outside parties behave.

Elsewhere in this issue, we assess the recent ASEAN-South Korea summit, analyze the potentially dangerous game of cat-and-mouse being played by the US and Chinese navies off the coast of China, examine the risks to Pakistan posed by the Taliban, explain why Japan hasn’t yet found its equivalent of Barack Obama, scrutinize the political standoff in Thailand and investigate the growing ties between Asia and the Persian Gulf countries. We also carry a tribute to the late South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun, whose recent suicide shocked the world. Two reviews of books on Japan and India round out Global Asia’s summer offering.

If you would like to contribute to Global Asia, please send your articles or proposals to us at editorial@globalasia.org.

Sincerely yours,

Chung-in Moon, Editor-in-Chief

David Plott, Managing Editor

June 2009
Vol.4 No.2

Nukes, Succession Politics and the Future of North Korea:
Trying Times for Security on the Korean Peninsula Letter to Readers
Cover Story

Nukes, Succession Politics and the Future of North Korea: Trying Times for Security on the Korean Peninsula

The dangers present on the Korean Peninsula are clear for all to see. For anyone in doubt, North Korea’s May 25th nuclear test put that to rest. What is less clear is how the nuclear issue, succession polititcs and other uncertainties will play out.
- Leon V. Sigal (176)
  North Korea Policy on the Rocks: What Can Be Done to Restore Constructive Engagement?
  North Korea's latest nuclear and missile tests have forced the young administration of US President Barack Obama to grapple with policy toward the Korean Peninsula perhaps sooner than it wanted.
- Han S. Park (179)
  Succession in North Korea
  Reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il may have tapped his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, to be his successor surprised the world and set off a flurry of speculation about whether the country's military leadership would fall into line.
- Rüdiger Frank (205)
  Dreaming an Impossible Dream? Opening, Reform and the Future of the North Korean Economy
  North Korea's leadership seems intent on clawing back from the economic reforms of 2002, despite evidence that reform is the only alternative to economic collapse.
- Young Chul Chung (178)
  Society in Disarray: Crime, Corruption and Deepening Cognitive Dissonance in North Korea
  North Korea's current political and economic system is unsustainable. Its experiment with market forces in 2002 ironically unleashed social behavior that threatens to weaken the government's control.
- Peter Hayes (175)
  Unbearable Legacies: The Politics of Environmental Degradation in North Korea
  Nowhere has the terrible price of North Korea's political and economic system been more visible than in the state of the country's environment. Peter Hayes takes stock of the damage and points to a way out of the mess.
- Walter C. Clemens, Jr (179)
  Alternative Futures for North Korea
  The debate over the future of North Korea often hinges on the belief that its current political and economic system is simply unsustainable. But what will replace the system if it passes or is transformed?
Features
- (184)
  Forging Deeper Ties: The ASEAN-ROK Commemorative Summit
  Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade of the Republic of Korea Yu Myung-hwan outlines how the summit could prove to be a milestone in ushering in a new era of even stronger cooperation between Korea and ASEAN.
- David Lague (182)
  Dangerous Waters: Playing Cat and Mouse in the South China Sea
  Less than two months after US President Barack Obama took office, China and the US found themselves embroiled in a dispute over a US spy ship in the waters off China's southern coast.
- Ahmed Rashid (189)
  Pakistan on the Brink
  After initially seeking an accommodation with the Taliban in the Swat Valley, the Pakistani government is now trying to defeat the Taliban militarily.
- Mikyoung Kim (176)
  Waiting for Japan's Barack Obama
  Japan has long prided itself on its homogenous society. But with the country's population set to plunge in the years ahead, the demand for foreign workers and a more open immigration policy will test the country's cultural insularity.
- Shawn W. Crispin (175)
  Dueling Elites: Thailand's Political Standoff
  Since a military coup toppled the government of Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in 2006, the country, which has since returned to democratic rule, has been plagued by increasingly strident political conflict.
- Samir Pradhan (194)
  Asia's Booming Ties with the Gulf
  Asia and the countries of the Gulf are a match made in heaven: the former accounts for the bulk of the world's growth in oil demand, while the latter dominates world oil exports. But the links between the two regions go much deeper than oil.
- Myong-sook Han (180)
  Death of a President: In Memory of Roh Moo-hyun
  Former South Korean Prime Minister Myong-sook Han's eulogy at the funeral on May 29 of former President Roh Moo-hyun, who leapt to his death from a cliff in his hometown village of Bonghwa, plunging the nation and the world into shock.
Book Reviews
- Hans Schattle (170)
  Bringing the World to the Rising Sun
  Japan’s Open Future: An Agenda for Global Citizenship: The authors cast global citizenship as an aspiration for Japan's future.
- Charles Patterson (185)
  Gods and Dogs
  The mass killing of stray dogs in Bangalore in early 2007 shocked and horrified the veteran Indian journalist Hiranmay Karlekar. He turned it into a mirror of human aggression.
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